Will Humanity Survive Ten More Years?
There are two quotes I like that apply to this question, “Will humanity survive ten more years?” They apply in some pretty uncomfortable ways.
One quote is from Neil DeGrasse Tyson: “The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”
One of the reasons I like this quote is because there is a nuance involved that is only implied. It doesn’t say it directly, but it speaks to the fact that science involves reality, and reality doesn’t play favorites. There is no “science God” that anyone can pray to so that they are protected from harsh and brutal circumstances. Wishful thinking does not influence reality.
The second quote I like is a little long but nevertheless valuable, and it's from Donald Rumsfeld: “Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”
Why does this quote apply to the question asked? Because humans are so prone to undeserved confidence in what we think, believe, and know… and in what we don’t realize we don’t have a clue about.
The nature of nature is that it has no motives or agenda and does not care about any actions, morals, feelings, or plans. Nature is the ultimate reality and the rules are strict and non-negotiable.
And even in a world that is for all intents and purposes unsullied and pristine, shit happens. We are no longer living in a world like that.
As applied to the question… we are living in a world with accelerating issues that are largely dependent on various relationships that are increasingly threatened or damaged. We really aren’t intelligent enough to understand the scope of the damage we are doing, much less the time frame of how interconnections are impacting each other.
Too many people believe the lesson in the parable of how the little boy that cried, “Wolf!” is about how it is easy to justify ignoring a warning when the warning seems unnecessary. They tend to forget that in the end of that story the little boy cried, “Wolf!” and they ignored him… as their sheep were being killed.
Right now, sitting in our warm homes, with full refrigerators and store shelves, and with plenty of oxygen to breath and water to drink… ten years seems assured. To question the survival of the human race in the next ten years is easily believed to be extreme.
But science, and nature, do not care if you believe, and there are unknown unknowns.
